19 AUG 2022

Data to Disrupt: Arizona Republicans chose extremism — but pushing back can help Democrats win

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1. Battleground spotlight: Arizona extremists rise to the top 

Arizona Republicans chose a slate of far-right conspiracy theorists in their primary elections, including many who made white nationalist conspiracy theories and attacks on democracy the anchor of their electoral message. At the top of the ticket is Blake Masters, who won his primary by denying the results of the 2020 election, peddling transphobic dog-whistles, and echoing dangerous white nationalist conspiracies of “an invasion.”

Latino Voters Reject Xenophobia and Extremism: Despite Masters’ victory in the GOP primary, the general election is a whole different ballgame.  As the New York Times’ Jennifer Medina warns, the white nationalist, anti-immigrant rhetoric from Masters and other Arizona Republicans “could repel Latinos in the state” and “damage'' the GOP’s path to victory in a state where the Latino voting block determines the winner. A major new national poll of Hispanic voters from UnidosUS and Mi Familia Vota Education Fund found: 

  • Latino voters’ top-ranked “deal breaker” was a candidate being supported by white supremacists/nationalists.

    • 55% chose being “supported by hate groups and White supremacists/nationalists,” the highest deal-breaker among 11 tested.

    • Other key “deal-breakers” included: supporting a complete ban on abortions, without exceptions (52%); support for or participation in the January 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol (46%); and opposing immigration reform or a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants (45%).

  • 84% of Latino voters say it’s “personally important” for elected officials to condemn white supremacy.

New testing from Swayable also showed that after seeing an ad exposing Masters’ plan to finish Trump’s wall and separate immigrant families, respondents were more likely to say they would oppose using taxpayer dollars to build a wall at the US-Mexico Border — and less likely to support a candidate who wants to end DACA and put Dreamers on a path to deportation.  With a campaign to grant Dreamers in-state tuition on the ballot in November in Arizona, which is likely to draw out pro-immigrant and Latino voters, there is a real opportunity for Democrats to hit Republicans and draw the contrast on the issue.  

Masters has company: Take a deeper dive into the full slate of far-right conspiracy theorists turned Arizona Republican candidates here. 

2. Ten years after DACA, GOP Attacks Dreamers 

This week ten years ago, Dreamers submitted the first Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) applications,  providing hundreds of thousands undocumented youth with some regularity and protection from deportation. Ever since, poll after poll (after poll after poll) has found a consistently strong majority of  Americans — even Trump voters — support DACA and creating a pathway to citizenship. 

Democrats have proudly championed the success of the program and passed the Dream and Promise Act twice in the House, but Senate Republicans have blocked various measures from moving forward despite strong public support. On the campaign trail, GOP candidates on the ballot have publicly denounced DACA, and some are even actively campaigning against the popular program. 

Bottomline: DACA is now facing a serious challenge in the courts by several Republican states and the future of hundreds of thousands of Dreamers hangs in the balance as we await a decision from the conservative Fifth Circuit Court. With the program on the chopping block and the possibility of an extreme GOP majority takeover that could undermine a legislative fix to protect Dreamers, the stakes of this upcoming election couldn’t be higher. 

3. With the right approach, Democrats can disrupt Republicans’ extremism 

As Republican candidates repeatedly campaign with nativist extremism, look to Beto O’Rourke and John Fetterman for examples of how to respond. They have robust, dynamic digital programs modeling the four S’s – Sequence, Soothe, Sway, and Saturate – to have their message break through the noise. As part of this larger strategy, they are engaging the debate on immigration, not leaving free range for Republicans to peddle their extremism. Not responding to the GOP's invasion’s messaging could be detrimental and allows the GOP to frame the conversation around immigration. 

  • Watch Beto’s response to a skeptical lifelong Republican. It’s a master class on how Democrats should respond to immigration this year by (1) engaging the debate; (2) defining the GOP’s extremism, and (3) proposing values-based solutions.

  • Data to Disrupt has repeatedly written about how the Fetterman campaign for Senate in Pennsylvania is setting an example of how battleground Democrats can and should lean-in with a values based approach to immigration.

4. In spite of the violence spurred by Republican rhetoric, GOP candidates double down on extreme “invasion” messaging 

In August 2019, a man drove 10 hours to the border city of El Paso to target the Latino community and murdered 23 people because he believed he was fighting an “invasion of Texas.” In August 2017, a vast array of bigots converged on the streets of Charlottesville, chanting “you will not replace us” — an event that ended in tragedy. The white nationalist conspiracies about “invasion” and “replacement” have inspired multiple terrorists attacks, but this August, these racist lies have been fully embraced and adopted into the GOP’s midterm message. 

What was once fringe white nationalist fiction is now mainstream. See:

  • Tucker Carlson explicitly defended the “great replacement” theory for his millions of nightly viewers.

  • A new report for America’s Voice that found 546 pieces of political messaging from Republicans this cycle that employ this rhetoric.

  • Sen. Roger Marshall gave a floor speech on the anniversary of the El Paso mass murder proposing a resolution to declare the “invasion” real, legitimizing the same white national conspiracy theory that drove a mass murderer to kill members of the Latino community.

  • At CPAC Dallas, the main stage was awash with “invasion” rhetoric from Governor Greg Abbott, Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán, Donald Trump and many others.

Dive Deeper: As Right-Wing Rhetoric Escalates, So Do Threats and Violence (NYTimes)

  • “Experts note that rhetoric does not have to directly reference violence to contribute to threats. Dehumanizing language also plays a role. They point to efforts to label immigrants as invaders…”

  • The anti-immigrant rhetoric, the dehumanizing and apocalyptic language from the GOP and right-wing media have many observers, including DHS and the FBI, worried about the increased threat of violence.

5. Right-wing media overview 

In the month of July, there were: 

  • 3,743 negative mentions of immigration in right-wing media,

  • more than 180,000 negative references to immigration on all of Twitter,

  • 2,740 mentions from GOP Twitter accounts.

In the month of July, prominent GOP politicians and groups tweeted about the border 1331 times. They used the word migrant 244 times. 

Got a question or request for any messaging research? Email us at info@datatodisrupt.org.

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