12 SEP 2022
Data to Disrupt: *New* Battleground Poll: Democrats Can Counter GOP Attacks
1. Democrats can counter GOP attacks on the border by going on offense
With under two months until the midterm and Republicans’ midterm prospects dwindling as a result of backlash on the Roe decision and concerns about MAGA extremism, the GOP is now more desperate than ever to distract voters with anti-immigrant attacks. Republican Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is leading the effort and encouraging the GOP to double-down on three main attack lines on immigration: open borders, fentanyl, and ‘invasion.”
If these Republicans’ nativist attacks are left unanswered, they can gain traction with voters. But a new poll, conducted by Hart Research and BSP Research on behalf of the Immigration Hub and SEIU, demonstrates that Democrats can win voters by uplifting popular solutions like citizenship for undocumented communities like Dreamers and exposing Republican vulnerabilities on immigration — especially GOP support for policies that try to separate families and deport immigrants living here.
Some key findings from a new battleground state poll with a Latino oversample include:
60% of voters, including 73% of Latino voters have serious concerns about Republicans who are trying to deport law-abiding immigrants who have lived in, and contributed to, the U.S. for years.
67% of voters, including 73% of Latinos have very serious concerns about the GOP support for separating immigrant families and putting children in cages.
Two of the most serious concerns that Latino battleground voters have about Republicans are the “use of hateful attacks on immigrants that encourage white nationalists and other domestic terrorists, putting all Americans at risk of violence” (73%) and “support separating immigrant families and putting children in cages” (73%).
There is a critical segment (22%) of Latinos for whom immigration is a top issue, a personal issue, and a motivating issue to get them to the polls in 2022.
Voters want to protect Dreamers: 65% said that Congress should act if the DACA program is overturned in court. And 70% of voters — including 74% of Independents — agree that there should be a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
Turn the tables: Without hearing from Democrats on immigration, voters say they have more confidence in Republicans when it comes to immigration, but when presented with the options — a Democrat who favors a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants vs. a Republican who says we should not let “illegal immigrants become legal” — an 8-point Republican advantage becomes a 7-point Democratic lead.
2. Battleground spotlight: Florida GOP extremism makes the Sunshine state competitive
It’s no secret that many of the Florida Republican candidates who emerged from the primaries as victors have embraced MAGA extremism. And despite conventional thinking, recent polling in the Sunshine State shows a tighter race than most expected. Using this momentum, Democrats can raise the stakes against key GOP candidates by exposing and sounding the alarm about their extremism on immigration:
Gov. Ron DeSantis: From joining Texas Gov. Abbott at the border to using his executive authority to block migrant children from reuniting in Florida, DeSantis’ anti-immigrant position rejects the state’s long tradition of welcoming those seeking freedom and refuge.
The latest: DeSantis’ lieutenant governor’s call for shutting the door on future Cuban migrants and busing them out of state has received tremendous backlash from the Cuban-American community in the state. Meanwhile, the Republican Party of Florida is running ads attacking Charlie Crist for supporting Dreamers.
Sen. Marco Rubio: Rubio has abandoned the counsel of his immigrant mother to treat immigrants with compassion as he has tried to win favor with Florida’s MAGA base. Rubio has spent the last several months launching repeated anti-immigrant attacks against Democratic Senate candidate Val Demings — who has an opportunity to galvanize key swing and turnout voters in Miami-Dade, Broward and other competitive counties by reminding this electorate of Rubio’s opposition to DACA, TPS, and failure to support immigration reform efforts.
Don’t forget! An ad test done by Swayable on an ad in which Venezuelan-American advocate, Mr. William Diaz, called out Rubio for not expanding TPS for Venezuelans, found the ad reduced favorability with Rubio by nearly 3 points among moderates.
Democratic model behavior:
Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Charlie Crist, and State Senator and congressional candidate for FL-27, Annette Taddeo, are going on the offense on immigration and wasting no time holding DeSantis accountable for his administration’s policy to bus Cuban migrants out of Florida. They are holding press conferences, launching Spanish radio, and pinning op-eds slamming DeSantis for his extreme agenda.
Annette Taddeo draws the comparison between the two parties clearly: “DeSantis and the Republican Party love to say that they are on the side of people fleeing communism and socialism, but they continually turn their backs on those fleeing total repression in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.”
3. Thousands of “truly repellent” GOP campaign ads
A new in-depth report from America’s Voice finds that Republicans will make their nativist narrative a top messaging priority this cycle. Covering the report in the Washington Post, Paul Waldman and Greg Sargent write: “In the world of Republican campaign ads, very little has changed since the xenophobic Trump presidency, and some of what’s in these ads is truly repellent.”
Despite the fact that immigration will not be a top issue for the majority of voters this cycle, the GOP will continue to peddle anti-immigrant rhetoric.
The report examines a catalog of nearly 4,000 pieces of political communication for this cycle up until August 2022, finding over 2,596 ads and 481 campaign emails that employ dog-whistles. The breakdown:
Over 2,130 unique ads and 400 campaign emails that use nativist dog-whistles
Over 360 unique ads that fear-monger about Democrats' alleged “open border” policies
Over 330 ads that deploy dog-whistles around drugs and immigration
Over 130 ads that employ the white nationalist “invasion” and “replacement” rhetoric
Bottomline: It’s clear that Republicans are indulging in the worst kind of white nationalist rhetoric. But as new polling has revealed, while this kind of messaging resonates with a MAGA base, it’s failing to gain traction with the swing voters that will decide the midterms elections.
5. Right-wing media overview
In the month of August, there were:
2,881 negative mentions of immigration in right-wing media
More than 180,000 negative references to immigration on all of Twitter.
In the month of August, prominent GOP politicians and groups tweeted about the border 1262 times. They used the word migrant 180 times.
Got a question or request for any messaging research? Email us at info@datatodisrupt.org.
Powered by the Immigration Hub and America’s Voice
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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.