27 JUN 2022

Data to Disrupt: What “caravan”? Move past the border

1. A candidate’s opportunity to persuade and motivate voters on immigration

Even with no migrant “caravans” arriving at the border, Title 42 still in place, record crackdowns on drugs and drug-traffickers at the border, and President Biden’s new agreements with countries in the Western Hemisphere to mitigate migration, the misconception that immigration is a political loser appears to be stopping Democrats in their tracks from even entertaining the issue beyond deliberating on asylum and Title 42— an issue made an issue by Republicans.

But as we’ll continue to show you in the data we’re collecting, Democrats can win votes and the debate on immigration by sticking to a formula that works:

Recognize immigrant contributions

+ show commitment to popular solutions (i.e. citizenship, order & justice at the border)

+ hold the GOP accountable on immigration

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= increased Democratic favorability

The best opportunity just passed: Celebrating DACA and Dreamers — two of the most popular and well-supported programs and populations. While senators, such as Sen. Cortez Masto (D-NV), celebrated DACA on Capitol Hill, here’s who did it right in the battlegrounds:

  • Second Lady of Pennsylvania Gisele Fetterman wrote in PennLive, the TribLive, and GoErie, “If he is elected, John will be a staunch supporter of the Dreamers, and he will work to help create a modern, fair, humane immigration system that will lay the foundation for a bright future for all Americans.”

  • Charlie Crist, running against Gov. Ron DeSantis, wrote in the Miami Herald, “I’m committed to removing the barriers that DREAMers face and actively pushing for a pathway to citizenship."

  • Bonus: John Fetterman hits all the right notes by closing with “Immigration makes America, America.”

2. Ad Tests: Holding GOP candidates accountable on immigration sinks their numbers with key voters

In new ad tests conducted by Swayable, on behalf of the Immigration Hub and America’s Voice, Republican favorability is reduced among key voters across Texas and Florida.

In Texas, the “Show Me Your Friends” ad demonstrated that Republican candidate Monica De La Cruz (TX-15) proudly promises to continue the Trump administration’s brutal border policies.

  • The favorability of Congressional Republicans dropped across the board.

  • The majority of Democrats found the ad both credible and relevant — a sign that Democratic voters are craving more political messaging that reflects the danger of continuing the extreme immigration policies of the past.

Rubio in trouble:

Floridians who were shown an ad where a Venezuelan-American advocate thanks President Biden for authorizing Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuelans in the U.S. and admonishes Sen. Marco Rubio for his lack of support for immigration reform.

  • The ad moved Democrats and Independents against voting for Rubio by 4 and 2 points, respectively. Latino and Black voters were moved by 3 points against Rubio.

  • The ad also reduced favorability with Rubio by nearly 3 points among moderates.

3. Battleground border Republicans, show me your friends

America’s Voice has launched a new bilingual campaign, “Show Me Your Friends/Dime Con Quién Andas” focused on the six Republicans running in battleground districts that run along parts of the U.S./Mexico border — Monica De La Cruz (TX-15), Cassy Garcia (TX-28), Mayra Flores (TX-34), Tony Gonzales (TX-23), Yvette Herrell (NM-02) and Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06).

The campaign seeks to hold Republican candidates accountable for the reckless anti-immigrant extremism the GOP has embraced and to educate their constituents about the company they keep and refuse to denounce. Many in the GOP refuse to accept responsibility for helping to mainstream the “invasion” and “white replacement” rhetoric and conspiracy theories.

With Republican leaders, like Sen. McConnell (R-KY), Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), setting the tone, if the GOP were to take control, America could once again see a return to the cruel and unpopular policies of the past. Think: family separation, Dreamers in jeopardy, and wasteful border walls.

Watch an explainer about the new campaign.

4. Republicans highlight Biden’s record crackdown on drugs at the border as… a bad thing?

Recently, you may have seen some Republicans tweeting or deploying ads about fentanyl and other drugs stopped at the border. President Biden made cracking down on cartels and drug-traffickers a major component of his border plan. And he’s followed through. Yet, the GOP has made fentanyl and migrant “drug-traffickers” one of three top anti-immigrant themes to attack Democrats in 2022:

  • Prominent Republicans have tweeted fentanyl more than 800 times so far this year.

  • In the first three months of the year, the GOP deployed over 150 different paid political ads that pushed nativist dog-whistles around illicit drugs

  • See how they mix up the narrative in a recent TV ad from Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI).

The facts:

  • According to the DEA and CBP, fentanyl comes into the U.S. mainly via ports of entry, not with migrants.

  • Washington Post fact checker Glenn Kessler writes: “Fentanyl seizures have increased, not fallen, under Biden. Overdose deaths jumped sharply under Trump.”

  • Most Republicans voted against the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill), which would have improved ports of entry where fentanyl is actually trafficked.

Disrupt the narrative:

A new ad from the Fetterman campaign punches up, not down, by highlighting a headline that places blame for fentanyl on inaction in Congress. Democrats can go on offense on the issue in key battleground states by talking solutions, even without touching immigration.

5. Right-wing media infiltrates the mainstream

From June 1-15, there were:

  • 2,026 negative mentions of immigration in right-wing media,

  • More than 90,000 negative references to immigration on all of Twitter

  • 1141 mentions from GOP Twitter accounts.In the month of May, there were:

     

The right-wing's obsession with the U.S.-Mexico border influences coverage at mainstream outlets like the New York Times and the Washington Post. Since January 2021, there have been over 17,000 mentions of the "border" in mainstream media outlets and over 57,000 in right-wing media outlets. The mainstream media's highest peaks of "border" mentions occur on similar dates as right-wing spikes.

The GOP's immigration buzzwords like "migrant invasion," "caravan," and "fentanyl" have also found their way into mainstream outlets. Since 2021, mainstream media has featured:

  • 1,077 mentions of “fentanyl” within the context of immigration,

  • 1,395 mentions of “migrant caravan,”

  • and 975 mentions of immigration “invasion” rhetoric.

Got a question or request for any messaging research? Email us at info@datatodisrupt.org.

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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.