22 APR 2022
Data to Disrupt: Why Democrats can win the immigration debate
1. Warning: Act like a Republican, lose votes
Immigration is poised to be a major issue for President Biden and the Democrats, especially with a crucial segment of voters — mostly swing, Democratic base and Latino voters — who either need to be persuaded or motivated on the issue to give Democrats the edge.
A new poll from the Immigration Hub found that voters are mostly hearing from Republicans about immigration and Democrats are losing ground by remaining silent on the issue.
Democrats need to respond to Republican attacks, but must do so not by repeating or supporting Republican messaging and policies, which will backfire with Democratic base and swing voters.
Instead, Democrats need to communicate a balanced messaging that combines both popular solutions and American values: order and justice.
The majority of the electorate is more on the Democratic side than the party thinks. They support Biden’s border solutions, such as creating an orderly and fair process for asylum seekers, prioritizing families, cracking down on cartels and drug-traffickers, and investing in smart border infrastructure — not physical barriers or wastely walls.
Voters still want action to pave the way for a path to citizenship for Dreamers, farm workers and undocumented families. They also see the value in creating a functioning immigration system that works for both businesses and people.
Congresswoman Escobar messages it right: Title 42 is not a deterrent — neither are walls. We need real solutions that get to the root of the problem.
2. Experts: Democrats can win the immigration debate, but they need to engage to win it
Democratic pollsters and operatives say that it’s clear that voters are hearing more about immigration from Republicans — and that needs to be countered.
Geoff Garin, President of Hart Research, told Data to Disrupt: “While Republicans and their allies want voters to believe the Title 42 debate is about illegal crossings at the border, it is important to keep the focus on refugees who have been denied the opportunity to apply for asylum under the law because of the ban the Trump Administration put in place. Voters support a fair and orderly system for processing people who are applying for asylum, but they need Democrats to show they have a clear plan to make sure the resources, technology, manpower and policies are in place to administer the asylum system effectively and securely when Trump's border closing comes to an end.”
Matt Barreto, BSP Research President and Co-Founder (also Biden’s pollster): "While Latino voters are thinking about the economy, it is wrong to assume immigration issues are not important. About one in every five Latino voters say immigration is the issue that will motivate their vote, and this group of voters could be the deciding factor in close elections."
Sound-bite du jour: Listen to America’s Voice’s Frank Sharry deliver the message!
3. Immigration remains a key component of Republican battleground ads
Texas’ early primary likely foreshadows what we can expect from Republicans across the country — a wave of ugly anti-immigrant ads directed at the base ahead of primary elections. Numerous Republicans have already employed their disingenuous Title 42 attacks into their fundraising emails and ads.
According to America's Voice GOP Ad Tracker, in the first three months of 2022 Republicans have run nearly 350 anti-immigrant ads in battleground states.
4. Title 42 is the right-wing media’s favorite topic these days
Since the CDC announced it would be repealing Title 42 on April 1, right-wing media has been pushing the issue aggressively. Between January and March, there were only 355 mentions of Title 42 across all of right-wing media; since April 1, it’s been mentioned 1,185 times.
Meanwhile on YouTube, anti-immigrant messaging is going viral, reports Politico. A new report by Define American finds that videos on the social platform are influencing immigration opinions, and even voting habits:
“Nearly 20 percent of likely voters reported having changed their views on immigration because of content they saw on YouTube, a number that jumped to 25 percent among people ages 18 to 34, according to the report. Almost 30 percent contacted a political representative — and 21 percent went so far as to change their vote for a political representative based on their reaction to immigration-related content they saw on YouTube.”
5. GOP candidates up the anti-immigrant talk on Twitter
On Twitter, 2022 Republican candidates are tweeting up a storm about immigration. In the month of April, candidates for the House tweeted negatively about immigration 1,534 times, while Senate candidates tweeted 750 times. These candidates were spread across the country; the most came from Texas and Arizona.
6. History lesson for the present: How Nevada Democrats swung the state
In 2010, the Harry “Reid Machine” showed Democrats the importance of investing in the Latino vote and not running away from immigration. Snapshot of the moment in 2010: “Immigration became a key undercurrent in Reid’s bid for a fifth term when Arizona’s tough measure to control illegal immigration was signed into law in April. Nevada’s nation-leading unemployment rate fed into some voters’ perception that undocumented migrants were draining social services and pilfering jobs. [Republican Sharron] Angle tried to capitalize on the sentiment with ads featuring thuggish-looking Latino men and the claim that Reid was ‘the best friend an illegal alien ever had.’”
Sound familiar? Reid didn’t relent and leaned into values-based pro-immigrant messaging and building a coalition of Latinos and Democratic base voters.
In 2016, Catherine Cortez Masto beat Republican Joe Heck in the race for Nevada Senate by running a pro-immigration campaign. After her win, The New York Times described her campaign as “focused on immigration overhaul,” writing that she “energized Latinos by railing against Mr. Trump’s plan to build a border wall, while trying to pin Mr. Trump’s most controversial views on her opponent.”
She met with families who worried about being deported, saying, “This is not what America is about.”
“We have a broken immigration system,” she told NPR. “And I say this because we are a country that has always opened our doors. That's who we are.”
Her messaging worked: she beat Heck 47% to 44%.
Got a question or request for any messaging research? Email us at info@datatodisrupt.org.
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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.