28 OCTOBER 2020
NEW SWING VOTER TESTING: Trump’s Closing Argument Fails to Move Swing Voters in PA, MI, CO; Biden’s Vision for Immigration Reform Gains Votes, Drives Voter Enthusiasm for Democratic Nominee, Damages Trump’s Support
New Ad Testing in Battleground States Reveals Swing Voters Move Away From Trump and Toward Biden When Shown Immigration-Themed Ads; Notably, Men and Undecided Voters Move Away from Trump
WASHINGTON, D.C. — With less than a week until the election, new testing of swing voters in battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Colorado reveals that advertising in support of Joe Biden featuring pro-immigration messages persuades voters to vote against Trump and cast their vote for the Democratic nominee, even when placed head-to-head with the Trump campaign’s “Radical Left” ad. The Immigration Hub worked with BlueLabs Analytics to test a series of real-world political, immigration-focused ads on voters in the key battleground states where they found that not only did voters move away from Trump, but Biden’s vision for immigration reform drove voter enthusiasm in his favor, while also damaging Trump’s support among crucial voting blocs: men and undecided voters.
“Trump has attempted to use xenophobic rhetoric and anti-immigrant polices again and again to appeal to his base of voters,” said Tyler Moran, Executive Director of the Immigration Hub. “But since the 2018 midterms the public has turned against him and are more supportive of pro-immigrant policies — like a path to citizenship — than ever before. It’s a testament to how blinded Trump is by his own agenda that he can’t even see that his strategy is alienating the very voters he needs to win.”
Three ads were tested — a “Pro-Trump” campaign ad that combined attacks against the “Radical Left” with immigration and two Immigration Hub ads, a “Pro-Biden” ad on his vision for immigration reform and a “Anti-Trump” ad on the president’s record on family separation, DACA and the border wall. Each of the Hub’s ads went head-to-head with the “Pro-Trump” ad, showing marked gains for Joe Biden on the issue of immigration.
Beatriz Lopez, Director of Political Research and Communications of the Immigration Hub, added, “Trump’s closing argument, via millions of dollars of ads, to America is that Biden and Democrats are 'radical' in nature and in their approach to immigration, among other issues. Why? Because immigration alone, as his signature weapon of choice, is creating a backlash and all-time high of support for pro-immigration solutions. Our research consistently points to this voter trend - even among men or ‘family patriots’ - that isn't just clearly costing Trump votes, but setting the stage for immigration reform as part of our country’s recovery. Biden and the Democratic vision to move forward on citizenship and humane policies isn't risky business, rather smart and sensible -- and more importantly, the American people are ready for it.”
The swing voter ad testing found seven primary takeaways:
Head-to-head, Joe Biden gains votes on his vision for immigration against Trump’s ad: Majority of swing voters choose to vote against President Trump, even after watching Trump’s ad. When this group of voters is shown just the “Pro-Trump” ad, Biden leads this universe by only four points (50% to 46%). When this group of voters is shown the “Pro-Trump” ad and the “Anti-Trump” ad on immigration, Biden’s gain increases to 17, 57%-40%. Similarly, when this bloc of swing voters is shown the “Pro-Trump” ad and the “Pro-Biden” ad, Biden’s lead increases to 10 points: 52%-42%.
Joe Biden’s vision for immigration reform drives enthusiasm for voting for the Democratic nominee. The “Pro-Biden” ad increases enthusiasm for Biden's supporters to vote for him: 84% rate their enthusiasm for supporting Biden at a 7 or higher after viewing the ad compared to 79% who watched only the “Pro-Trump” ad.
Swing voters found the “Pro-Biden” and “Anti-Trump” ads more convincing than Trump’s advertising. A majority of respondents in this target universe rated Trump's ad poorly. On a scale of 0 - 10, the average rating of Trump’s ad was a 3.9 compared to an average rating of 4.7 for the “Pro-Biden” ad and 4.4 for the “Anti-Trump” ad.
Critical blocs of voters - men and undecideds - shift away from Trump. The ads didn’t just move undecided voters, but were effective at damaging Trump’s support. We saw Trump’s support decrease and Biden’s support increase by 7% among men, 7% among college educated voters and 10% among voters over 50 who saw the “Anti-Trump” ad.
Solutions are driving voter choice. Key voting groups who saw the “Anti-Trump” ad were more likely to report that Biden has the best solutions for the country. The test revealed that the voters who moved on believing who had the best solutions for the country also moved on vote choice. This mirrored movement suggests that voters' perceptions on who has the best solutions for the country is what drove who they end up supporting.
Trump’s record on immigration moves voters away from President Trump and towards Joe Biden. The “Anti-Trump” ad moved voter sentiment on key traits, such as holding unfavorable views of Trump, reporting Biden's immigration policies as a reason to support him and Trump's immigration policies as a reason to vote against him, and agreeing with Biden more on the issue of immigration than Trump.
Among voters who just saw the pro-Trump ad, Trump led on the issue of immigration by a 5 point margin (47% Trump to 42% Biden). Among voters who saw both the pro-Trump and our anti-Trump ad, Biden led by an 8 point margin (40% Trump to 48% Biden) – a 7 point decrease in the percent saying they favored Trump on the issue.
Tracking from the Immigration Hub reveals that the Trump campaign and Republican operatives have continued to target Pennsylvania, Michigan, and other battleground states with anti-immigrant ads on Facebook and other platforms. His campaign has spent $9 million deploying anti-immigration ads on television, making the issue Trump’s second highest expense behind his spending on the issue of China.
Read the full memo for further details on the study. Our recently released 2020 election analysis memo can also be found here.
Methodology
BlueLabs administered a text-to-web survey to 1,731 voters in CO, MI, and PA in the universe. The participants were randomly placed into one of three treatment groups. All three groups received the same questionnaire, differentiated only by the creative to which they were exposed. After screening to confirm participants were able to see and hear each video clearly, a final 1,634 respondents continued through the rest of the survey. A total of 607 voters only saw a pro-Trump ad, 498 saw both a pro-Trump ad and a pro-Biden ad, and 529 saw a pro-Trump ad and an anti-Trump ad.
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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.