August Ad Data Shows Both Parties Reach Highest Monthly Spend on Immigration
Recent analyses and polling from a range of news outlets, such as NY Times and Axios, seemingly affirm that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has an advantage over Vice President Harris on immigration based on numbers that show that a majority of voters trust Trump over Harris on the issue. But a deeper look at these numbers shows that the concern and the trust-advantage is being driven by Republican voters (largely non-college whites) and some independents. What these polls and pundits often overlook, however, is that Harris can overcome this “immigration problem” and excite a set of the electorate, including Latinos and persuadable voters, by continuing to define herself on the issue of immigration.
Consistently, the Immigration Hub’s research has found that the majority of the public is unaware of where Democrats stand on the issue and what they’ve done on it, leaving Trump and Republicans to fill in the blanks. When voters become aware that Democrats stand for a balanced approach to fixing the nation’s immigration system and have delivered on policies that both address the border and create legal pathways for Dreamers and workers in the U.S., a majority of voters, including Latino and swing voters, support and move towards Democrats. The essential ingredient to this message that resonates and mobilizes voters Harris needs to win is “keeping families together” – both a strong contrast against Trump and a popular solution.
Proof Points: “Keeping Families Together” and Pathway to Citizenship are Mobilizing Messages
Throughout 2024, Immigration Hub has released four polls on immigration, assessing the American electorate’s sentiment on President Biden, Vice President Harris, and Donald Trump’s immigration positioning and policies. Consistently, we’ve found the following:
A deeper dive of polling from the Immigration Hub, ACLU, Equis, Somos Votantes, and Vera Action illustrates the need for the Harris-Walz campaign to expand beyond their position on border security and lean into the strongest contrast against Trump’s rhetoric by promoting citizenship and keeping families together. Simply, it is not enough to advertise or stump on her record to secure the border; Harris must go on offense with what she’s done to fight for families and her bold vision to deliver a pathway to citizenship if she is elected president.
Winning Key Votes in AZ, NV and Across Battleground States
The research conclusively demonstrates that it is imperative that the Harris-Walz campaign expand beyond their talking points on the border and message on Harris’s record on championing immigrant families and fighting for a pathway to citizenship. In particular, there are persuadable and swing voters, including Latinos, who Harris needs to win over in Arizona and Nevada where the margins are thin. These voters need to be presented with both positions – (1) Harris’s record on the border, cracking down on fentanyl and transnational gangs, and most importantly (2) her commitment to keeping American families together and delivering a pathway to citizenship while reminding voters of Trump’s cruelty (family separation and mass deportation).