12 OCT 2021

Dear David Shor, Immigration is Not a Political Loser

If Democrats Want to Win Elections, They Should Embrace Immigration — Not Run From It

Washington, DC — WASHINGTON, DC - On October 8th, The New York Times published a column by Ezra Klein that highlighted David Shor’s theory, analysis and suppositions for the Democratic Party to win in the next election cycles. While Klein made valid points and showcased key examples on how Democrats can motivate voters, in many instances throughout the opinion piece, Klein included Shor’s assertions on immigration, summed up in the following statement:

“He and those who agree with him argue that Democrats need to try to avoid talking about race and immigration.”

As the Immigration Hub has consistently noted since 2017 via polling, digital testing and other research, the notion that immigration is a political loser for Democrats has created bad political habits, such as ignoring immigration attacks or failing to talk immigration to their voters at all. Voter contact programs by multiple groups, including People’s Action, and research in 2018 and 2020 demonstrated that by contrasting Trump and Republican position on immigration with values-based, pro-immigrant messaging and solutions like citizenship, critical blocs of voters in battleground states can be persuaded to support pro-immigrant policies and Democratic candidates, and inoculated against divisive, anti-immigrant attacks and policies. This remains true today as found in recent polling, including research conducted by EquisLab and BSP Research that showed Latino support can dramatically shift in favor of Democrats if they articulate immigration solutions and, more so, if they deliver on the long-held promise of citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

“We’ve been hearing this bad advice for years,” stated Sergio Gonzales, Executive Director of the Immigration Hub. “And what has it yielded? Republicans continue to weaponize immigration, filling the vacuum on an issue that can effectively move key voting blocs. Running away from immigration isn’t the answer. Senators Michael Bennet and Harry Reid proved in 2010 that when you lean into immigration, you can galvanize Latinos and other voters to win tight races. The same remains today. Democrats can win votes by articulating their bold vision for a humane and functioning immigration system and actually delivering on it. It works with the base; it works with Latinos and it works with the non-college educated. Stacey Abrams and Georgia groups, LUCHA and Arizona groups, and Terry McAuliffe and Virginia groups are all good examples of what it takes to invest and to win votes without tip-toeing around immigration or race.”

Mehrdad Azemun, Senior Strategist of People's Action, added: "It's pathetic that with years of repeated, peer-reviewed experiments demonstrating that Democrats should embrace immigration, one self-appointed 'political data expert' only cites a single, dated, experience from nearly 10 years ago to back up his claim. Democrats can take the advice of consultants who continue to lose elections, and follow their path of cowardice and failure. Or they can listen to hard data and our on-the-ground experience, at the doors and on the phones across campaigns, organizations and states, and prove that if we engage voters on immigration, we can win.”

“The devil is in the data,” added Beatriz Lopez, Chief Political and Communications Officer for the Immigration Hub. “I know I’m not your typical white guy crunching the numbers, but believe me — our research consistently shows that you can sway critical voters by talking immigration. It doesn’t have to be all about immigration, but you can’t leave it up to the GOP to define Democrats on the issue. And they will and already are, effectively eroding voter support for Democrats. The problem has never been the messenger; it’s the lack of messengers on the Democratic side who listen to ‘strategists’ who don’t know how to write a winning message on immigration.”

In July of 2021, the Immigration Hub, People’s Action, SEIU and Voto Latino urged Democrats in a confidential memorandum to deliver on citizenship and lasting protections for Dreamers and undocumented immigrants to maintain the majority, galvanize critical blocs of voters and prevent backlash. The groups cite a number of evidence-based data and research, reiterating and highlighting among them:

When Democrats fail to articulate a bold, values- based vision for immigration, Republicans fill the vacuum and move critical sets of moderates who are vulnerable to their attacks and misinformation. Ultimately, voters fail to understand what Democrats stand for on the issue.
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In a 2020 experiment conducted by People’s Action, deep canvassing took place among white, working-class voters in rural Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The results showed a dramatic shift in support for including undocumented immigrants in expanded social safety net programs.In the same year, the Immigration Hub also worked with BlueLabs Analytics to test a series of real-world political, immigration-focused ads on voters in the key battleground states where they found that not only did voters move away from Trump, but Biden’s vision for immigration reform with a path to citizenship drove voter enthusiasm in his favor, while also damaging Trump’s support among crucial voting blocs: men and undecided voters. In a randomized controlled test, also conducted by BlueLabs and the Immigration Hub, of voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania before and after being exposed to the Hub’s pro-immigrant content, swing voters moved toward Biden by five percentage points and away from Trump by seven percentage points - among other movements on views in favor of immigration policy solutions.
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Where voter engagement groups and Democratic candidates have aggressively reached the Latino electorate on immigration, the dividends have paid off. Notably, the political stories of Arizona (see LUCHA), Wisconsin (see Voces de la Frontera Action), Georgia (see Mijente, GLAHR and others), Colorado (see CIRC and COLOR) and Nevada (see the Culinary Workers Union) are quintessential examples of how investment in Latino outreach and socializing the Democratic vision on immigration, among other relevant issues of concern, can move this electorate solidly into the Democratic coalition.

The Latino vote must not be taken for granted to win in 2022, ‘24 and future elections. Democrats have an opportunity to redefine their Party among Latino voters by boldly articulating their position, pushing back against Republicans, and delivering on the unfulfilled promise — immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship.

Read the full memo here.

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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.