7 NOVEMBER 2020

Pennsylvania Voters - A Defiant Multiracial Majority - Reject Trump, Republican Attempts to Weaponize Immigration


PENNSYLVANIA - Despite multiple campaign stops peppered with “law and order” dog whistles against immigrants and communities of color, and Republican candidates touting Trump’s message, Democratic nominee Joe Biden swung one of the most hotly contested battleground states in the country. The defeat illustrates that voters rejected Trump’s vision for the country, including on issues like immigration — which Trump used to clench a victory in the state in 2016. His hateful anti-immigrant rhetoric failed to resonate with swing voters this year and resulted in higher Latinx turnout in the state than in any other election year.

“A multiracial majority in critical counties — galvanized by a strong progressive movement — emerged in support of a new vision for the country,” stated Tyler Moran, Executive Director of the Immigration Hub. “Trump’s administration will be forever stained by the legacies of divisive and denigrating language against immigrants, family separation at the border, attempts to remove protections for Dreamers, and diverting critical military funds to build his vanity wall. Pennsylvania voters have spoken and there is a mandate for President-elect Biden’s vision that includes a humane and fair immigration system. ”

Notably, Joe Biden flipped two of the three Pennsylvania counties that voted for President Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016: Erie and Northampton, and ran 4 points better than Hillary Clinton in the third, Luzerne. He also outperformed Clinton in traditionally red central Pennsylvania, with particularly strong gains in Lancaster and Cumberland Counties, which have long been safely Republican, showing that Trump’s collapse in the suburbs was not limited to the collar counties of Philadelphia. Even in more sparsely populated counties like Butler, Lycoming, Northumberland and Schuylkill, Trump ran 3-4.5 points behind where he was in 2016. Overall, Trump’s vote margin shrunk in 19 Pa. counties from 2016 to 2020. 

Biden’s victory in PA was fueled in large part by historic turnout among Latino voters, a fast-growing demographic that currently makes up 7.8% of PA’s population. CASA IN ACTION, an immigration advocacy group in PA that conducted a massive get out the vote campaign in Latino communities across PA, estimates that more than 300,000 Latinos turned out to vote this year. 

Trump Weaponized Immigration and the Strategy Failed

Throughout the 2020 election cycle, the Trump campaign targeted Pennsylvania with ICE billboards, threats of raids, and an ad strategy combining his signature anti-immigrant attacks with claims about the “radical left”. Trump made multiple stops in Erie County and other rural areas, and in each stop made anti-immigrant slanders against Biden and Democrats’ approach to the issue. 

In poll after poll, the majority of Pennsylvania voters, including swing voters, disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration and support pro-immigration solutions, such as a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Since 2018 when the Pennsylvania electorate dismissed Lou Barletta, Scott Wagner and their alignment with Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric (i.e. migrant caravan “invasion”) and policies, sentiment on the issue among the state’s swing voters has been shifting and influencing vote choice:

  • A recent Immigration Hub ad test among Pennsylvania swing voters, conducted by BlueLabs, revealed that the president’s record on immigration moved voters away from President Trump and towards Joe Biden. In fact, a head-to-head, Joe Biden gains votes on his vision for immigration against Trump’s ad.

  • A new poll — which interviewed 1,018 registered voters — echoed past research: 60% of Pennsylvania voters agree that an economic recovery bill should include a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrant workers who have been essential to the pandemic response. Nearly two-thirds of voters (63%) prefer citizenship over deportation (29%). 

  • Immigration Hub’s voter study, conducted by Civis Analytics, identified nearly 6 million voters across Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Colorado that move to vote against Trump when exposed to pro-immigration messaging. The most persuadable voters were primarily suburban, white, not college-educated, and male -- the same voters Trump was banking on.

Republicans Jim Bognet, Sean Parnell and Lisa Scheller Attacked Democrats’ Pro-Immigration Position and Made Their Bed with Trump

PA-08: Cartwright beats Bognet. No more is the backlash effect on anti-immigrant attacks more notable than in Pennsylvania congressional district 8, considered “Trump Country” and home to Lou Barletta. The Republican candidates may have changed but the assaults on Congressman Cartwright’s (PA-8) record and view on the issue remained the same, with only the volume of flagrance adjusted. In 2018, Cartwright was hit with John Chrin’s ads on sanctuary cities and other heinous hyperboles on immigration. Chrin employed Scott Wagner and Lou Barletta’s anti-immigrant strategy and, as the Hub’s research found, the messages backfired - failing to mobilize Pennsylvania voters, particularly moderate women. 

Bognet ignored the lessons of his predecessors. This year, from political advertising to TV interviews, Jim Bognet fully embraced Trump and his agenda (proudly). His first ad accused Cartwright of supporting “illegal” immigrants taking American jobs; his later ads then attacked Cartwright for voting in favor of the Dream and Promise Act. Barletta’s pupil leaned in and, just like his predecessor, he lost.

Congressman Conor Lamb (PA-17) is no stranger to Republican attacks that echo Trump’s dog whistles on race and immigration. In 2018, Keith Rothfus deployed the typical anti-sanctuary city ads and attacked Lamb on his vote against Rep. Bob Goodlatte’s heinous bill that would have undercut Dreamers and gutted legal immigration. Rothfus’s strategy faltered much like his 2018 counterparts, Lou Barletta and Scott Wagner. Ignoring the lessons of 2018, Sean Parnell failed to galvanize voters by echoing the president’s “radical left” and “law and order” messaging.  Congressman Lamb, a supporter of Dreamers and immigration reform, once again swung voters in a district Trump had won in 2016.

Praised by the president, Republican candidate Lisa Scheller endorsed the president’s border wall and “amnesty” attacks, employing them against Congresswoman Susan Wild (PA-07). Unlike her Republican predecessor Charlie Dent, she paid no heed to Pennsylvania suburban voters who have largely supported pro-immigration policies and disapproved of Trump’s vanity wall and family separation policy. Wild, who rose to fame through her representation of a Syrian family facing separation under Trump’s Muslim ban, is in favor of immigration reforms, including citizenship for Dreamers. Scheller made her wager on Trump’s strategy and failed to flip the district Charlie Dent once held.

Bottom line: In 2016, Trump won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes. Today, he lost the state and Democrats retained key congressional districts that continue to show a surge of voters fed up with Trump’s chaotic presidency, including his handling of immigration. Pennsylvania is ready to turn the page and get on a path to recovery that isn’t grounded on division, but solutions that unite the country. No plan is complete without a new immigration initiative.

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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.