PRESS RELEASES

13 NOV 2018

2018 Midterm Lessons: Pennsylvania and Colorado Surveys Show Voter Backlash to Trump’s Immigration Playbook

WASHINGTON, DC- President Trump made immigration the focal point of the midterms and made clear that he believes “it is going to be an election about the caravan.” From Lou Barletta and Scott Wagner in Pennsylvania, to Walker Stapleton in Colorado, and a whole host of House and legislative races, new findings show the majority of voters roundly rejected Trump’s playbook of anti-immigrant political stunts and rhetoric.

Trump’s immigration policies and language were largely echoed by Republican candidates. They ran almost 300,000 anti-immigrant ads, spending over one hundred million dollars. The electoral results demonstrate an increasingly growing American electorate choosing pro-immigrant candidates over those employing Trump’s immigration strategy.

Today, the Immigration Hub released two new polls, conducted by Global Strategy Group, of voters in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Colorado. Similar to voters across the nation, the surveys found that a majority of Pennsylvania and Colorado voters were not galvanized or convinced by rhetoric on the caravan or sanctuary cities.

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13 NOV 2018

New Pennsylvania Poll and GOTV Efforts Show the Backlash to the GOP Immigration Playbook

View poll findings

A recording of the call is available here

PENNSYLVANIA - President Trump made immigration the focal point of the midterms and made clear that he believed “it is going to be an election about the caravan.” Today, the Immigration Hub released a new poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, of Pennsylvania voters, revealing voter backlash against President Trump and Republican candidates’ immigration rhetoric and policies.

Similar to voters across the nation, the survey found that a majority of Pennsylvania voters were not galvanized or convinced by rhetoric on the caravan or sanctuary cities. In fact, Trump’s immigration playbook, echoed by Lou Barletta, Scott Wagner and John Chrin, failed to work in favor of the candidates. Senator Bob Casey, a pro-immigrant candidate, had an impressive showing, winning back Obama-Trump counties and exceeding past performances in the Pittsburgh market.

“New polling we conducted in the immediate aftermath of the election shows that Trump’s anti-immigrant focus backfired with voters in Pennsylvania,” stated Nick Gourevitch, Partner at Global Strategy Group. “Voters found that Republican candidate alignment with Trump on immigration was more of a reason to vote against those candidates than to vote for them, including with politically important groups like voters in Pennsylvania who voted for Trump in 2016 and shifted to Bob Casey in 2018.”

The Immigration Hub, along with the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), also commissioned an additional survey of nearly 2,000 registered Pennsylvania voters, polling their views on gubernatorial candidate Scott Wagner’s ad, “Caravan”. The results show that Wagner’s ad failed to mobilize the majority of Pennsylvania voters to support Wagner, and in some cases even backfired by increasing turnout intentions of one of the most coveted Pennsylvania voting bloc - female voters, both liberal-leaning and moderate women. In fact, 62% of moderate suburban female voters did not support Scott Wagner’s ad.

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13 NOV 2018

New Colorado Poll and GOTV Efforts Show the Backlash to the GOP Immigration Playbook

View the exit poll finding

A recording of the call is available here

COLORADO - President Trump made immigration the focal point of the midterms and made clear that he believed “it is going to be an election about the caravan.” Today, the Immigration Hub released a new poll, conducted by Global Strategy Group, of Colorado voters, revealing voter backlash against President Trump and Republican candidates’ immigration rhetoric and policies.

Similar to voters across the nation, the survey found that overwhelmingly the majority of Colorado voters were not galvanized or convinced by anti-immigrant rhetoric. In fact, Trump’s immigration playbook, echoed by Walker Stapleton and GOP state legislative candidates, failed to work in favor of Republicans. Jared Polis, a pro-immigrant candidate, had an impressive showing, exceeding Hillary Clinton's 2016 margins.

“New polling we conducted in the immediate aftermath of the election shows that Trump’s anti-immigrant focus backfired with voters in Colorado,” stated Nick Gourevitch, Partner at Global Strategy Group. “Voters found that Republican candidate alignment with Trump on immigration was more of a reason to vote against those candidates than to vote for them, including with politically important groups like Independents in Colorado.”

The Immigration Hub also commissioned Change Research to conduct an additional online survey of 525 likely voters in Colorado’s Sixth Congressional District. The survey found that majority of CD-6 voters rejected President Trump’s recent political ploys on immigration, including his anti-immigrant ad centered on the migrant caravan. In fact, 62 percent of women and 71 percent of Hispanics were less likely to support Trump’s immigration policies after watching his caravan ad. (View the rest of the results here.)

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