Trump’s Plan for Mass Deportations is a “Plan to Vaporize the Economy”

6 SEPT 2024

WASHINGTON, DC – With two months until Election Day and less than a week until the next presidential debate, Donald Trump and J.D. Vance continue to trumpet their unpopular mass deportation agenda that includes enforcing the “largest domestic deportation in American history.” If elected, Donald Trump plans to enact draconian immigration policies that would not only separate families but also suffocate the country’s economic growth by exacerbating the labor gap in the U.S. workforce and costing the U.S. billions of dollars in taxes contributed by immigrants.

Recent reports by economic experts and industry analysts highlight how detrimental Trump’s proposed plans would be to the country’s economic vitality.

• Boston Globe by Michael Ettlinger: “Trump’s plan to vaporize the economy”

“What would happen if 22 percent of America’s farmworkers vanished from the workforce? (…) Would production drop; would other workers in agribusiness lose their jobs and take pay cuts as their industry declined; would prices for consumers go up and imports increase?

If former president Donald Trump is elected president, we will find out because when he talks about “mass deportation” and proposes the “largest deportation effort in American history” it means taking out the 5 percent of the American workforce that are unauthorized immigrants — concentrated in industries where they play unique roles and are irreplaceable.”

• The Economist: Donald Trump’s promise of “mass deportation” is unworkable

“Some 11m [undocumented] people live in America…according to the Migration Policy Institute. (Mr Trump implausibly claims there are 15m-20m.) Deporting them all could directly cost the government $150bn, or $14,000 per deportee. And that does not include the costs of depriving American firms of millions of workers and customers. Estimates of the cumulative hit to GDP quickly run into the trillions. Nor does it include the cost to families. Most illicit immigrants have been in the country for more than a decade. Expelling them would mean that 4.5m children who are American citizens by birth would be separated from either a parent or their home.”

• New York Times by Thomas Edsall: “You Want Policies? Trump’s Got Policies.”

“The negative economic consequences of Trump’s tariff proposal pale in comparison with the pain his plan to deport millions of undocumented immigrants would inflict.

The immigrants being targeted for removal are the lifeblood of several parts of the U.S. economy. Their deportation will instead prompt U.S. business owners to cut back or start fewer new businesses, in some cases shifting their investments to less labor-intensive technologies and industries while scaling back production to reflect the loss of consumers for their goods.”

• Washington Post: “Trump’s deportation plan would be nearly impossible to implement”

“Let’s talk about mass deportations.

Not about the wrenching cruelty it would necessarily involve: separating undocumented parents from their citizen children; forcing American kids to drop out of school to follow Mom and Dad to an unknown future over the border. Let’s not talk about the devastation it would inflict on the economy, which would be deprived, at a stroke, of about 5 percent of its workforce.

Rather, let’s talk about the logistics of the enterprise: the implications for law enforcement, the judiciary and the bureaucracy at large. Taken together, the logistical hurdles are formidable. This suggests that though Trump might really be itching to deport people by the millions, he will fail.”

• New York Times by Ted Genoways: “Trump Said Democrats Will Take Away Your Hamburgers. He’s the One Who Might”

“If carried out abruptly and thoroughly, as Mr. Trump has promised, such [immigration] policies would threaten vital areas of the American economy dependent on immigrant labor. Nowhere is that more evident than in the meat industry.

The fact is, America’s largest meat producers are dependent on the immigrants Mr. Trump is threatening to round up and deport.

If he is elected and makes good on his promise to bar refugees, those producers could lose a vital source of labor overnight. If he succeeds in rescinding certain protections for asylum seekers and speeds the process of deportation trials, the entire industry could be brought to a halt. Meat processors are only just recovering from the ravages of the pandemic. This would push them to the breaking point — and perhaps crash the whole food system.”

• MSNBC by Paul Waldman: “The brutal reality of Trump’s mass deportation plan needs to be discussed”

“That’s not to mention the economic consequences of mass deportation. Like it or not, undocumented people not only do critical work in a variety of industries including farming, construction and food production; they also pay billions of dollars in taxes every year. As one recent review of economic literature on the subject concluded, mass deportation “would shrink the U.S. economy, cause American workers to lose jobs, reduce the wages of U.S. citizens, lose the taxes paid by deported unauthorized immigrants and worsen the finances of federal, state and local governments.” Trump’s mass deportation plan is his most consequential economic promise, far more than cutting taxes or increasing tariffs, and it would be an economic disaster.”

• Newsweek: “Trump Argues Migrants are Stealing Jobs, Experts and Data Disagree”

“The numbers do not necessarily add up, with immigration advocates arguing that many newcomers fill positions Americans no longer want or generate jobs by starting up businesses at a greater rate than U.S. citizens.”

High-skilled immigration has contributed a lot to U.S. entrepreneurship, innovation and the labor market, because these people generate growth of firms and job numbers.”

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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.