Voters Want Pathways to Citizenship, Not Mass Deportations

Washington, D.C. – As immigration remains a top concern for voters ahead of November, a recent Scripps/Ipsos poll confirms that voters favor paths to citizenship (68%) for undocumented immigrants over mass deportations (54%). The poll mirrors battleground findings from Global Strategy Group and BSP Research showing that, when provided a choice, voters overwhelmingly reject the trademark Trump mass deportation policy (39% support) that would result in American families across the nation being torn apart. The data show that providing a pathway to citizenship (61% support) for undocumented immigrants in the U.S. remains a far more popular solution among voters. Among Hispanic voters, the margin is even higher (22% favor mass deportation vs. 78% support pathway to citizenship).

“Given a choice between mass deportation or a pathway to citizenship, voters overwhelmingly support citizenship for undocumented immigrants,” said Immigration Hub Deputy Director Beatriz Lopez. “Most Americans do not want to see families who have been here for many years separated—and that’s what Trump’s plan would do. For the last decade, voters have consistently demanded that our leaders deliver on a pathway to citizenship. The bottom line is that the cruel policies of the past have no place in America.”

Read the full memo below:

Key Findings

When framed as a choice, voters prefer a pathway to citizenship over mass deportation by a large margin. Providing a pathway to citizenship remains the far more popular approach to handling undocumented immigrants. On behalf of the Immigration Hub, Global Strategy Group and BSP Research recently conducted a poll in battleground states and found that by a 22-point margin, voters prefer a pathway to citizenship over mass deportation. Among the Hispanic sample, that margin is 64 points and even a majority of Republican Hispanics prefer the pathway to citizenship approach.  

Our internal polling shows that when voters are given specifics about who would be deported, they prefer allowing people to stay over being deported by overwhelming numbers. In an April poll conducted by Global Strategy Group and BSP Research for Immigration Hub in the same 2024 presidential battleground states, majorities of voters support allowing undocumented immigrants who fit the following criteria to stay in the country:

• Those who are regularly employed and paying taxes (73% of voters overall say all/most should be able to stay in the U.S., 20% say all/most should be deported; 76% stay, 19% deport among Hispanic voters)
• Those who are married to a U.S. citizen or legal resident (73% stay, 18% deport overall; 78% stay, 17% deport among Hispanic voters)
• Those who are Dreamers, who came to the United States as children (69% stay, 21% deport overall; 76% stay, 20% deport among Hispanic voters) 
• Those who have passed a background check and have no criminal record (69% stay, 25% deport overall; 77% stay, 18% deport among Hispanic voters)
• Those who are family caregivers to a spouse/child who is a citizen/legal resident (68% stay, 22% deport overall; 76% stay, 17% deport among Hispanic voters)

Those other polls showing mass deportation having majority support are getting there with unusually high numbers with Democrats and Hispanics – but neither we nor Pew are seeing that in our data. The Harris Poll says 51% support mass deportation, and the CBS/YouGov poll has it at 62%.  Both of these polls are showing around four in ten Democrats, and around half of Hispanics supporting such a policy.  As can be seen on the table on the following page, this is a far different story in our own data, which shows 11% of Democrats and 22% of Hispanics support mass deportation.  

Why the difference? It’s how you ask the question. The culprit is likely something that the survey research industry calls “acquiescence bias”.  In this post, Pew Research explains that asking agree-disagree or support-oppose questions, as Harris and CBS/YouGov do on mass deportation, can lead to an overstatement of the number of people who actually support them.  Pew explains that “a better practice is to offer respondents a choice between alternative statements” as “less educated and less informed respondents have a greater tendency to agree with such statements.” This phenomenon is likely happening on mass deportation polling, where many voters are being asked whether they support a policy they may not fully understand.  But when given the choice, as in our poll and the Pew poll, the voters’ true underlying beliefs on the issue come out more clearly.

READ GSG/BSP MEMO HERE

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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.