Battleground Poll On Balanced Immigration Solutions

On behalf of the Immigration Hub, Global Strategy Group and BSP Research recently conducted public opinion research on the issue of immigration. This memo reflects the findings from a survey of 800 interviews with likely voters in the 2024 presidential battleground states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, WI) between April 8th and April 15th, 2024, and 600 interviews among Hispanic voters in key Congressional districts and battleground states between April 15th and April 20th, 2024. Key findings are as follows:

Battleground voters want to see a balanced approach to immigration. In keeping with previous research among battleground voters, the majority (66% overall, and 73% of Hispanic voters in key Congressional districts/states) want a balanced approach to immigration “that includes both border security and protects Dreamers, providing them and other eligible immigrants who have been here for many years a pathway to citizenship” over an enforcement-only approach “that only focuses on border security, deportations, and limiting the use of asylum” (34% overall, 27% Hispanic).

This preference is reflected in voters’ high levels of support for a slate of both security-oriented policies and paths to citizenship and legal status for undocumented immigrants. Consider the following:

  • Voters remain strongly supportive of security-forward policies:
    • 91% support and just 6% oppose investing in increased screening capacity at the border to find fentanyl and other illegal drugs
    • 89% support and just 6% oppose improving technology and infrastructure at the border
  • There are nearly equally high levels of support for paths to citizenship and legal status for many of the undocumented immigrants currently living in the U.S.:
    • 82% support and just 14% oppose creating pathways to citizenship for immigrants who have been living in the U.S. for many years and pass a background check and pay taxes
    • 76% support and just 20% oppose providing work permits to Dreamers and other undocumented immigrants who have lived here for many years and pass a background check
  • Honing in specifically around the issue of family caregivers, voters deeply support them being able to stay here legally:
    • 74% support (84% Hispanic) and just 19% oppose expanding the ability for family caregivers to stay here legally, and together with their families, if they have lived in the U.S. for many years and they are caregivers to a spouse or child who is a U.S. citizen or legal resident

Voters find many different groups of undocumented immigrants to be sympathetic and deserving of legal status, including family caregivers and those married to a U.S. citizen or legal resident. At least 65% of voters in the battleground support allowing undocumented immigrants who fit the following criteria to stay in the country:

  • Those who have served, or had a spouse or child serve, in the U.S. armed forces (77% of voters overall say all/most should be able to stay in the U.S., 15% say all/most should be deported; among Hispanic voters, 80% say stay, 14% deport)
  • Those who are regularly employed and paying taxes (73% stay, 20% deport overall; 76% stay, 19% deport among Hispanic voters)
  • Those who are married to a U.S. citizen or legal resident (73% stay, 18% deport overall; 78% stay, 17% deport among Hispanic voters)
  • Spouses of citizens who have lived here for more than 5 years (71% stay, 19% deport overall; 78% stay, 16% deport among Hispanic voters)
  • Those who are Dreamers, who came to the United States as children (69% stay, 21% deport overall; 76% stay, 20% deport among Hispanic voters)
  • Those who have passed a background check and have no criminal record (69% stay, 25% deport overall; 77% stay, 18% deport among Hispanic voters)
  • Those who are family caregivers to a spouse/child who is a citizen/legal resident (68% stay, 22% deport overall; 76% stay, 17% deport among Hispanic voters)

While many voters are unaware of President Biden’s accomplishments on immigration, they support what the President has done when they learn more about it. Further, learning about the President’s accomplishments improves his standing on the issue. In testing a list of President Biden’s policy successes on immigration, majorities of voters recognize a range as a good thing. After being presented with all of them, Biden’s job approval on the issue of immigration jumps 16 points among the overall electorate, and 16 points with Hispanic voters. Chief among them:

  • Increasing fentanyl seizures at the border (71% a good thing, 11% a bad thing)
  • Hiring hundreds of additional personnel at the border (68% good, 13% bad)
  • Allowing military veterans who have been deported because of their immigrant status to access a path to return to the U.S. (68% good, 13% bad)
  • Reuniting over 700 immigrant families who were separated under the previous administration (58% good, 20% bad)
  • Reducing the backlog of citizenship applications (57% good, 21% bad)
  • Modernizing ports of entry (54% good, 18% bad)

Donald Trump and Republicans have weak spots on immigration that Democrats can take advantage of, with targeted messaging about their cruel policies like family separation and the way they’ve made immigrants targets for hate and violence. Overwhelming majorities of battleground voters continue to oppose bringing back the Trump-era policy of separating immigrant families at the border (21% support, 67% oppose) – presenting a vulnerability for Trump and his party. Likewise, their cruel and inhumane immigration policies and their spreading of hatred and bigotry when it comes to immigrants stand out as troubling to voters.

Learning more about what Biden has done, presented against a contrast of Trump’s past policies and 2024 vision, moves voters to trust President Biden more on immigration than Donald Trump. After voters have seen President Biden’s policy successes and messaging against Trump and Republicans on immigration, their trust in Biden over Trump to handle the issue improves, ending with 51% trusting Biden more and 47% trusting Trump more, up from a deficit of 12 points initially in the poll. Among Hispanic voters, Biden has a 36-point advantage after messaging (66% Biden/30% Trump), up from a 20-point advantage initially.

ABOUT THE POLL

Global Strategy Group conducted a survey of 800 likely voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin between April 8th and April 15th, 2024. The survey has a confidence interval of +/-3.5%. All interviews were conducted via web-based panel. BSP Research conducted a survey of 600 Latino registered voters, in battleground states and Congressional districts, between April 15th and April 20th, 2024. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. All interviews were conducted via phone or online. Care has been taken to ensure the geographic, political, and demographic divisions of the population of likely voters are properly represented.

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