3 OCT 2023

Maria Cardona: “There is overwhelming evidence showing that immigration as a general election electoral wedge issue has lost its edge” 

As displayed in last week’s GOP debate, Republicans pander to the MAGA base on immigration. But the strategy is an electoral failure.

WASHINGTON – Last week at the second GOP debate in Simi Valley, California, Republican presidential candidates staked out extreme positions on immigration and border security – including military action in Mexico, an end to birthright citizenship, and mass deportations of Dreamers and other long-settled immigrants. In a recent op-ed for the Hill, Democratic Strategist Maria Cardona argues that the lurch to the far right by Republicans may play to the MAGA base but not to critical voters. In fact, since 2016 the GOP’s emphasis on immigration and border security has repeatedly failed to deliver in contested elections.

In case you missed it…

The Hill: Immigration dominated the GOP debate, but it’s not the political winner Republicans think

By Maria Cardona

  • “With Donald Trump as the likely standard bearer, harsh rhetoric and cruel immigration policies and proposals — such as family separation, deportation of U.S.-born children, forced migrant busing, military invasion of Mexico, deadly razor wire on the Rio Grande, the outright killing of migrants and ending birthright citizenship — will only escalate.”

  • “Republicans at all levels have tried to run against Democrats on immigration and the border ever since Trump won the 2016 election. According to AdImpact, in 2022 Republican-aligned groups spent more than $170 million on anti-immigrant TV ads in just 10 battleground states.”

  • “Let’s start with the 2017 Virginia elections, when Republicans tried to use scare tactics in their ads — featuring Latino-looking gang members with tattooed faces — to hit Democrats as being both weak on immigration enforcement and soft on crime. The result? Democrats won decisively as the xenophobic ads backfired with Northern Virginia voters.”

  • “In the 2018 midterms, Trump decided to nationalize the race with a relentless focus on “caravans and criminals.” He warned that terrorists and “bad hombres” were on their way to invade our nation and to become Democratic voters, in what has become a favorite right-wing conspiracy called “white replacement theory.” The result? Democrats took back the House, winning by nine points — the largest margin in midterm election history…”

  • “In 2020, four years in on Trump’s harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric and cruel policies (including working to end the popular deportation protection policy for Dreamers known as DACA), he didn’t relent on trying to make immigrants the bogeymen that Americans could blame for every malady in their communities. In fact, he doubled down on these horrific policies. The result? A history-making 80 million Americans voted against him and elected Biden.”

  • “More recently, in 2022, a promised “red wave” threatened to topple Democratic Senate candidates in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania, and Republicans were dreaming of taking back control of the House of Representatives with a 40-plus majority. Democrats in key Senate races were bombarded on immigration and border security with hard-edged, blistering attack ads. Democrats won every one of these Senate races.”

  • “But one of the most underreported political stories in recent years is how Democrats in must-win states, like Mark Kelly in Arizona and John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, learned how to lean in on the issue; define themselves as balanced and sensible; embrace pro-immigrant, humane values; and win the majority of voters.”

  • “Americans are not anti-immigrant. We are a country founded by immigrants. But Americans are anti-chaos, and that is why President Biden has implemented several policies to help manage immigration and allow work permits for newly arrived migrants, a commonsense approach to alleviate pressure at the border and help boost local economies. But he and Democrats in Congress must do more.”

  • “So when serious Republicans decide it’s better to work with Democrats to truly fix our broken asylum and immigration system than to try to weaponize and run on it, Democrats will be ready to partner on a tough issue that demands a bipartisan legislative breakthrough to finally fix the problem.”

  • “It seems Republicans will keep overstating the electoral impact of immigration, swinging and missing; Democrats will keep preaching commonsense balanced solutions; and voters will keep favoring the practical, humane answers that reflect true American values.”

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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.