27 JULY 2020

Nearly 6 Million Swing Voters in Top 2020 Battleground States Poised to Move Away From Trump on Immigration

As Trump Doubles Down on Anti-Immigration Campaign Strategy, New Voter Model Identifies ‘Family Patriots’ —  Mostly White, Non-College, Suburban Men — Who Move Away from Trump and Towards Democrats with Values-Based Immigration Messaging

WASHINGTON, D.C. — As President Donald Trump doubles down on anti-immigrant rhetoric and a campaign strategy built around inciting fear and panic around immigration, a new voter model has identified nearly 6 million swing voters in key battleground states — Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — who move away from President Trump and toward Democrats when targeted with values-based immigration content. Commissioned by the Immigration Hub, Civis Analytics built the group of predictive models based on a survey of more than 9,000 voters, identifying nearly 6 million voters across the four battleground states who are most likely to be persuaded by pro-immigration messaging and move voters towards Democrats. The most persuadable voters are primarily suburban, white, not college-educated, and male — a key demographic crucial to Trump’s re-election campaign strategy. 

The predictive models were developed by analyzing the movement of voters towards a Democrat over Trump after voters were exposed to the Immigration Hub’s messaging through a series of immigration ads. Ultimately, the models identified a bloc of voters — “family patriots” — who were persuaded by narratives in the ads that elevate core American values — patriotism, unity and, fairness — and familiar connection and interdependency between immigrants and non-immigrants.

“Conventional wisdom would have you believe that Trump can win over swing voters on immigration, and Democratic candidates should avoid or deprioritize the issue,” said Tyler Moran, Executive Director of the Immigration Hub. “This model makes the case that in battleground states — where Trump narrowly won in 2016, and which will be consequential again in November — Democrats have an opportunity to counter and blunt Trump's strategy, and move crucial blocs of swing voters away from the president. If Democrats cede the issue to the president, they risk not only leaving votes on the table, but allowing a deeply flawed strategy — hinged on weaponizing immigration — to recklessly plow ahead, uninterrupted, and with potentially devastating consequences.”

Notably, the persuadable voters not only skew more male, white, and suburban, but they are also mostly Moderate voters. Across all four states, 41% of the persuadable voters are “Moderates”, while 40% are “Lean Democratic” and 19% are “Lean Republican". Of the persuadable population who "Lean Republican", they are younger, more white, more college educated, and significantly more male.

“Throughout our research, we have consistently found that a segment of swing voters are drawn to familiar ‘Americana’ values — patriotism and responsibility to family and community,” added Beatriz Lopez, Director of Political Research and Communications at the Immigration Hub. “The voter model not only identifies these voters, but also dismisses the notion that talking immigration is a nonstarter. When we remind these voters of those core American values and the common reliance between immigrants and nonimmigrants, we have a winning formula to activate these ‘family patriots’ and counter Trump’s playbook on immigration to win votes. Ultimately, it becomes a battle between the good family man or woman in your block who respects and relies on their neighbors and the bully in the ivory tower who’s trying to divide them.”

The new voter model data aligns with — and is further bolstered by — recent polling that indicates growing voter opposition to Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and immigration policies. A recent poll, commissioned by the Immigration Hub, FWD.us, and America’s Voice, finds large bipartisan support in twelve battleground states to provide a path to citizenship to Dreamers. Additionally, the majority of voters surveyed had doubts about voting for President Donald Trump due to his support for the deportation of Dreamers. 

Despite growing opposition — and polling indicating Trump is massively trailing Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden in virtually every major poll — Trump has continued to step up his attacks on immigrant communities, looking to recreate his 2016 election playbook when he weaponized immigration and xenophobia as a ploy to stoke the fears (and draw the support) of pockets of swing voters. 

Read the full memo for further details on the study. 

For media interview requests, please contact Marsh Palin at marsh@precisionstrategies.com.

Methodology

Commissioned by the Immigration Hub, Civis Analytics conducted a web-based survey and video tests from February 27 through March 24, 2020 among 9,639 adults 18+ in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Colorado. The survey and video tests were designed to both conduct a message test and to collect opinions on immigration and immigration policy. Three video messages were created by the Immigration Hub, and a public Trump campaign ad was used as the fourth video message. Civis’s RCT (Randomized Control Trial) method was used to conduct the message test - with one control group, one group that sees a Trump ad, and three groups that each see a separate Immigration Hub ad. Persuasion models were built using voter file characteristics to identify the persuadable audiences. As follows, individual and demographic model results are based on voter file characteristics, as well as modeled characteristics, such as partisanship. 

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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.