3 NOVEMBER 2020
NEW MICHIGAN POLL: In Key Battleground that Could Decide Fate of Both the Presidential Race and U.S. Senate, Biden Up By 5, Peters Up By 6, and Anti-Immigrant Attacks Against Peters Fail to Convince Voters
New Polling Finds Michigan Voters Support Pathway to Citizenship for Undocumented Immigrants and Dreamers, Moving Further From GOP’s Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric
WASHINGTON, D.C. — As voters today in Michigan and across the country are heading to the polls, the Immigration Hub and Change Research have released the results of a new survey which finds Joe Biden with a 5-point lead over President Trump, and Gary Peters with a 6-point lead over Republican candidate John James — and also finds that anti-immigrant attacks against Peters failed to convince voters while large majorities of voters support a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and Dreamers. The newly released poll of 623 registered voters is significant as Michigan is once again at the center of the national election, as one of few battleground states where the outcome may ultimately decide the fate of the presidential election and the U.S. Senate. It’s also one of battleground states where anti-immigrant rhetoric was used to attack both Biden and Peters, despite a bevy of recent polling finding swing voters moving further away from the GOP on the issue.
“President Trump and Republicans supporting John James attempted to use immigration as a wedge issue against Democrats running in Michigan as a ploy to gain swing voters,” said Tyler Moran, Executive Director of the Immigration Hub. “But this poll shows that the xenophobic strategy of both campaigns has backfired on them. Not only do Michigan voters not find these attacks convincing, but they support sensible pro-immigrant policies by wide margins. If Republicans want to win future races, they need to realize that a multiracial majority rejects these attacks and wants elected officials in office that want to solve our nation’s challenges.”
Ben Greenfield, Survey Data Analyst for Change Research, added, "In these hyper-polarized times, it is rare to see significant support from both sides of the partisan divide on any major policy issue. So it is striking that so many Michiganders of all political stripes support pro-immigrant policies."
The survey found four key takeaways in Michigan:
Biden Leads By 5, Peters By 6.
In the presidential race, Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 50-45. Libertarian Jo Jorgensen is at 3%, 1% are undecided, another 1% voted early but don’t recall how they voted, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins has less than one percent.
Senator Gary Peters leads his race, getting 51% of the vote, while Republican John James is at 45%. 1% plan to support a third party candidate, 1% are undecided, and 1% already voted but don’t recall for whom.
71% Support A Pathway To Citizenship For Undocumented Immigrants.
71% of Michiganders think that the United States should create a pathway for undocumented immigrants to earn legal status and citizenship, while 27% disagree. And nearly half of voters -- 47% -- strongly agree.
Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 96% support a pathway to citizenship. A large majority of independents who lean toward neither party -- 69% -- do, as well. Even among Republicans and independents who lean toward the Republican Party, 42% support a pathway.
More Than Two-Thirds Of Voters Support Pathway To Citizenship For Dreamers.
Voters in Michigan are also strongly supportive of a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers, with 68% supporting, 23% opposing, and 9% unsure. Again, there is considerable support on both sides of the partisan divide, with 36% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favoring a pathway for Dreamers and 45% opposed. Among Republican women, 42% support, and 41% oppose.
Voters Find Anti-Sanctuary City Attack Against Gary Peters Unconvincing.
Senator Gary Peters has been depicted by his opponents as dangerous for Michigan because of his support for sanctuary cities. The survey found this line of attack unconvincing. Respondents were shown one such video ad and asked how convincing they found it on a scale of 0 to 10. 53% rated it a 0, 1, or 2, while only 30% rated it 8, 9, or 10. And those who did find it very convincing were overwhelmingly already planning to vote for Republican John James.
Overall, Peters supporters gave the video an average rating of 0.7 out of 10. James voters, on the other hand, rated it 7.4 on average. That is, Peters voters were repelled by the video more than James voters were lured by it. And while only 1% of Peters voters rated the video 10 out of 10, 11% of James voters rated it 0 out of 10. In other words, the video is not only preaching to the converted, but it alienates more voters than it wins over.
To read the full details from the survey, please read our survey memo here.
To read our recently released 2020 election analysis, please read our findings memo here.
Methodology: Change Research surveyed 623 voters in Michigan who are likely to vote or have already voted in the 2020 general election from October 28-October 31. The survey was conducted online, using Change Research’s Dynamic Online Sampling Engine. Post-stratification was done on age, gender, race, education, region of the state, and 2016 presidential vote.
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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.