What Blueprint Polling Gets Wrong on Immigration Proposal Currently in Discussion

WASHINGTON – The proposal currently under consideration in the Senate includes a Trump-style, enforcement-only approach to immigration. The policies in discussion include mass deportations without hearings, mass detention, and expulsions with no due process. The latest polling provided by Blueprint fails to survey voters on the specific policies currently being considered by negotiators. The polling fails to communicate that families will be separated, asylum seekers denied protection, and detention will increase exponentially under the proposal. As first reported in Playbook, the Immigration Hub outlined to the White House that making such extreme concessions on immigration policy in exchange for foreign aid will have “immense” electoral consequences.

“We all agree that border security is an essential component to addressing our immigration system, and important to key voting blocs,” stated Beatriz Lopez, Deputy Director of the Immigration Hub. “The issue is what type of border policies the majority of voters will support — and I can tell you, it’s not the cruel and ineffective policies that Trump tried and continues to promise as a candidate. Trump-era policies are not popular, nor will they help Democrats win in 2024. When Democrats are able to contrast themselves against Republicans on immigration, they are able to mobilize and persuade key voters. In 2022, Senators Mark Kelly, Catherine Cortez Masto and John Fetterman successfully messaged on pragmatic and values-based immigration solutions against MAGA opponents who sought to close the border, end asylum, deport immigrants, and build a border wall. If Democrats accept this deal, without affirmative relief for settled immigrants working in America, Democrats will be fronting an enforcement-only agenda advanced for decades by right-wing Republicans that will depress support and enthusiasm among critical voters.”

Matt Barreto of BSP Research added, “Americans support a managed, orderly, humane border policy, and they want immigration reform to lift up immigrants already working here in the U.S.”

When testing Trump-style proposals such as mass deportation, jailing refugees, family separation and family detention, Global Strategy Group and BSP Research found:

• 64% of voters disapprove of detaining migrant families and children seeking asylum at the border in jails and detention centers until their cases are resolved

• 65% of battleground voters disapproved of jailing refugees

• 68% of disapproved of family detention

• 82% of disapproved of family separation at the border

In another analysis, they found continued disapproval for Trump-era policies:

These findings have been consistent since 2017. In fact, Trump-era policies that seek to ban asylum seekers and expel immigrants garner the lowest support. This was more evident during Trump’s term when his policies galvanized voters against Republicans in 2018 and 2020.

The policies in current discussion are associated with Trump and Republicans. President Biden and Democrats’ advantage in the immigration debate is when they’re able to go on offense and contrast against their rhetoric and policies:

• 61% of battleground voters found this statement to be the most concerning: Republicans support extreme MAGA positions far out of line with the mainstream, including separating children from their parents at the border and the mass deportation of Dreamers and other undocumented immigrants.

While immigration is not the top issue for the majority of voters, it is a critical issue for key swing voters and Latinos in battleground states. This fall BSP Research found that when Latino voters were asked about candidate positioning on immigration, more than one third of Latino voters (36%) state that the issue of immigration has “a lot of influence” on the candidate they will support for President in 2024.

In a recent poll commissioned by UnidosUS, BSP research found that a majority prioritize balanced and humane solutions:

The Blueprint poll provides false choices to those surveyed. Consistently, polling that accurately surveys voters on immigration policies has found that the majority of voters, including Independents, approve of a balanced approach to our immigration system.

• The majority of battleground voters (68%) favor a balanced approach that includes both border security and protects Dreamers, providing them and other eligible immigrants a pathway to citizenship.

• Only 32% of all voters, and only 26% of swing voters, want “an enforcement-only approach that exclusively focuses on border security and limiting the use of asylum.”

• In a Latino battleground poll by BSP Research: The majority of Latino voters (63%), like the majority of battleground voters in general, approve of a balanced approach to the immigration system that includes: President Biden taking action to increase border security by adding more agents to monitor and process migrants and also takes action to support immigrants already living here, such as providing temporary legal status to undocumented individuals.

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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.