3 NOV 2021

Election Analysis: Don’t Run Away from Race or Immigration, Lean In, Deliver Big to Energize Voters in 2022

Key Takeaways of Analysis: 

  • Virginia Gubernatorial Lessons of the Past and Now Show that When Weaponized Wedge Issues Go Unanswered, Democrats Lose

  • 2022 Will See Right-wing Anti-Immigrant and Anti-Black Attacks Revved Up; the Answer Isn’t Running Away from Race and Immigration

  • Democrats Must Deliver on the Promises That Gave Them the Majority, including Immigration

WASHINGTON, DC - As more data continues to paint the picture of the Virginia gubernatorial election, the results and early monitoring of ad and misinformation campaigns demonstrate key takeaways and lessons that should be heeded by Democrats as they deliberate on immigration in reconciliation and gear up for 2022. While the instinct for some may be to steer clear from “progressive” or wedge issues, such as immigration, the past and present gubernatorial races in Virginia prove otherwise. Additionally, with Republicans revving up their attacks on race and immigration, the Immigration Hub has repeatedly found that when anti-immigrant or anti-Black attacks go unanswered, Republicans fill in the blanks, frame the Democratic positioning on the issue, and pick up critical swing votes. The common misconception to run away or be silent on race and immigration is not only wrong in its nature, but is proving to be ineffective in persuading moderates and mobilizing the base and unmotivated Democrats. Most importantly, Democrats must deliver on policy solutions that are supported by wide swaths of voters, like lasting protections for undocumented immigrants living in the country. 

Quick Takes

Sergio Gonzales, the Immigration Hub’s Executive Director, stated, “As a former organizer in Colorado, the lesson is always the same: When Democrats invest early and heavily in mobilizing voters of color, from Black voters to the Latino and AAPI electorate, Democrats win. In Virginia, the organization CASA in Action reached tens of thousands of voters of color, and fueled victories in key state legislative races. But more resources for programs such as this are needed on a much larger scale heading into the midterms. When Democrats employ messages that clearly socialize their vision and solutions that serve to both motivate key voting blocs and counter rightwing attacks on wedge issues like immigration, Democrats win. There’s no good in trying to avoid the ‘tough’ topics. Democrats have a chance to turn the Virginia results as their moment to deliver big with the Build Back Better legislation and energize the very people who got them a majority. Immigration relief in reconciliation, in fact, is one way to motivate the unmotivated and cut the margins for Republicans in 2022.”

Beatriz Lopez, the Immigration Hub’s Chief Political and Communications Officer, added, “Democrats operating under the notion that they should ignore or avoid talking race or immigration are being ill-advised. There is a parallel on what we’ve seen on immigration that can be applied to what we’re learning on the right-wing use of ‘critical race theory’. It’s all race-baiting. On immigration, Republicans are using dog-whistles and bullhorns to increase anti-immigrant sentiment while filling in the blanks on where President Biden and Democrats stand on the issue. Our data shows that when Democrats socialize their vision on immigration and expose the GOP as obstructionists and divisive, they are able to shift voters in favor of Democrats. It’s not rocket-science: call out Republicans, use values-based messaging, and pass solutions that’ll excite voters.”   

Reading Between the Lines: How Immigration in the Past Virginia Gubernatorial Race Was A Lesson for Republicans

  • According to America’s Voice’s GOP Ad Tracker, Republican Glenn Youngkin avoided repeating the mistakes of Ed Gillepsie in 2017 and rarely deployed any anti-immigrant advertising or messaging. In 2017, Gillespie released ads, such as “Kill, Rape, Control”, against Ralph Northam that painted immigrants as criminals and distorted the facts around so-called sanctuary cities. The ads were the GOP candidate’s closing argument and failed to mobilize voters in his favor.

  • Instead of immigration, Youngkin used “critical race theory” under the guise of “parents’ rights” to create culture wars. This racist dog-whistle was turned into coded language, underscoring a values-based message made comfortable for voters, especially white women. The campaign heavily ran ads on the issue on social media platforms, connected TV and broadcast television - targeting suburbanites, including Latino and AAPI voters. Unanswered effectively by Democrats, Youngkin was able to pick up critical votes in key counties across Virginia.

Rightwing Attacks on Immigration and Race Are Revving Up in 2022, Democrats Must Go on Offense

  • Even if you wanted to run away from race and immigration, Republicans are ramping up their attacks on the issue to swing voters and gain new followers. A 2021 ad report from America’s Voice and Immigration Hub found that while paid advertising is predictably down in an off-year for federal elections, according to new tracking by America’s Voice, Republicans and their allies have deployed over 700 unique paid ads, displayed 52.6 million times on voters’ social media feeds across different platforms - including 623 unique anti-immigrant Facebook ads pushing the “border crisis” narrative since March, spending upwards of $592,000. The other top issue behind immigration is “critical race theory”.

  • Misinformation on immigration increases the reach of right-wing attacks. In the same report, the organization found that more than 3 million anti-immigrant mentions and thousands of online articles have been deployed to misinform the public and support attacks led by the Republican Party. Between June 29 and July 27, over 136,000 articles were published on immigration, generating 25.7 million Facebook and Twitter interactions. Most of these articles and content were promoted by right-wing media and influencers. Currently, in fact, a recent WSJ article on a private lawsuit related to separated migrant families has created a firestorm of misinformation by right-wing media and influencers. Between October 15 - 28, there have been over 937,000 Twitter mentions related to immigration in the US. Right-wing outlets are responsible for all of the 10 highest-engagement news stories shared to Facebook and Twitter about immigration in the past two weeks. Again, “critical race theory” is not far behind as a rightwing misinformation tactic to organize against Democrats.

Democrats Must Go On Offense, Deliver the Build Back Better Promises, Including on Immigration, to Persuade Swing Voters and Motivate Unmotivated Democrats

  • When Democrats fail to articulate a bold, values- based vision for immigration, Republicans fill the vacuum and move critical sets of moderates who are vulnerable to their attacks and misinformation. Ultimately, voters fail to understand what Democrats stand for on the issue. Failing to deliver on the promise of immigration relief for undocumented immigrants will be an even more significant factor in the coming elections that can have negative impacts on Democratic support.

    • In fact, two in three battleground voters say they would be “upset” if the legalization proposals do not pass (66%), including 90% of Democrats and 75% of independents, and nearly half say they would be less likely to vote for their senator if they learned they had voted against these bills (48%).

    • In looking at unmotivated Democrats – self-identified Democrats in these battleground states who say they are feeling less motivated to vote in the 2022 election (13% of respondents in this survey) – four in five (80%) say passing these permanent protection bills is urgent.

    • Nearly nine in ten unmotivated Democrats (86%) say they will be upset if these legalization proposals do not pass, and another 60% say they would be less likely to vote for their senator if they learned they had voted against these bills (60%).

    • Latinos are ready to credit President Biden and Democrats for finally addressing immigration, but there needs to be action. When the immigration policies are laid out, Biden and the Democrats have a great opportunity to shore up and energize Latino voters, by an 80-20 margin.

  • A multigenerational, multiethnic majority delivered big wins for Biden and Democrats in 2020. Where voter engagement groups and Democratic candidates have aggressively reached the Latino electorate on immigration, the dividends have paid off. Notably, the political stories of Arizona (see LUCHA), Wisconsin (see Voces de la Frontera Action), Georgia (see Mijente, GLAHR and others), Colorado (see CIRC and COLOR) and Nevada (see the Culinary Workers Union) are quintessential examples of how investment in Latino outreach and socializing the Democratic vision on immigration, among other relevant issues of concern, can move this electorate solidly into the Democratic coalition.

  • And even in Virginia’s race, thanks to CASA in Action’s more than 69,000 in-person voter engagements, including Latino voters, the group successfully fought for the election of Candi King for House District 2, Elizabeth Guzman for House District 31, Michelle Maldonado for House District 50, Briana Sewell for House District 51, and Luke Torian for House District 52.

  • In a 2020 experiment conducted by People’s Action, deep canvassing took place among white, working-class voters in rural Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The results showed a dramatic shift in support for including undocumented immigrants in expanded social safety net programs. In the same year, the Immigration Hub also worked with BlueLabs Analytics to test a series of real-world political, immigration-focused ads on voters in the key battleground states where they found that not only did voters move away from Trump, but Biden’s vision for immigration reform with a path to citizenship drove voter enthusiasm in his favor, while also damaging Trump’s support among crucial voting blocs: men and undecided voters. In a randomized controlled test, also conducted by BlueLabs and the Immigration Hub, of voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania before and after being exposed to the Hub’s pro-immigrant content, swing voters moved toward Biden by five percentage points and away from Trump by seven percentage points - among other movements on views in favor of immigration policy solutions.

Bottom line: Democrats can ensure 2022 wins by delivering the Build Back Better legislation that includes immigration, among other critical issues, that will help families and  communities thrive. To counter the attacks from the right, Democrats will need more than just effective rhetoric, they need major policy wins that show Republicans are obstructionists and Democrats are the party that gets the job done.

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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.