22 SEPTEMBER 2020
Follow the Ads: Trump Campaign Tweaks Strategy, Bundles Anti-Immigrant Messages with “Law and Order” Attacks Against Biden and Democrats
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Just ahead of this week’s rallies near Pittsburgh and Harrisburg, the Trump campaign recently deployed new ads across battleground states, including Pennsylvania and Michigan, combining the president’s signature anti-immigrant, divisive rhetoric with the economy and healthcare. Unlike in 2018 when Trump hurled overtly racist attacks against immigrants that fell flat on suburban white voters, the Trump campaign has retooled the strategy, bundling his anti-immigrant messages into multi-issue lines of attacks -- “amnesty” and “illegal immigrants” meets the “radical left”, healthcare and a scarcity of jobs, among other issues.
In just the last several weeks, the Trump campaign has fully integrated anti-immigrant messages into their economic and “law and order” messaging to reach battleground swing voters. The change in strategy is no surprise as recent polling, conducted by Global Strategy Group, demonstrated that Trump’s overt racism and attacks on immigrants are a political liability and more voters are rejecting that message. In fact, POLITICO also reported that even after running ads against refugees, “Trump’s rhetoric does not appear to be resonating with white America to the degree that he did in 2016.” Further, a recent voter model commissioned by the Immigration Hub identified nearly 6 millions voters across Pennsylvania, Michigan and Colorado who are prone to move away from Trump and toward Democrats with values-based immigration content.
According to Bully Pulpit Interactive, the Trump campaign has spent over $7 million since March 30 on anti-immigrant Facebook ads alone. This does not fully include expenditures for the new ad tactic, such as the $10 million-plus YouTube ad campaign - featuring Trump’s “Radical, Extreme, Left” ad that bundles claims against Joe Biden on taxes, citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and the radical left - mailers (i.e. highlighting the radical left, taxes and “amnesty” together), and the millions more spent by anti-immigrant PACs (i.e. America First Action Super PAC’s ad).
The campaign’s new tactics allow his recent anti-immigrant ads to evade keyword searches and will likely not be accurately categorized; thus, the amount spent on ads with anti-immigrant messaging can likely be greater than what can be tracked. For instance, since June, the campaign has spent $11.3 million on Facebook ads warning voters about “far left” (i.e. the Squad) and “antifa”. These same ads often include divisive calls against legal immigration. Voters can expect to be inundated with these same types of ads as the campaign has reserved over $95 million in digital (such as ads streaming channels) and TV time for the fall. Independent tracking by the Immigration Hub estimates that the Trump campaign spends hundreds of thousands on a weekly basis on ads combining immigration, economy, and “law and order” messaging.
The centerpiece of the Trump campaign’s ad strategy to reach battleground voters has consistently been grounded in anti-immigrant rhetoric. In 2020, the campaign has sharpened their messaging. Last week, during the Philadelphia town hall, President Trump claimed “we want people to come into our country” and that his administration was working on an immigration plan to welcome “a lot of people” in response to a question from a Harrisburg voter. Meanwhile, the campaign simultaneously launched a digital and TV ad accusing Vice President Joe Biden of diverting entitlement funding to “illegal immigrants.”
“While the 2018 midterm strategy of ‘migrant caravans’ and the border wall failed miserably, the Trump campaign isn’t pivoting away from weaponizing immigration,” said Tyler Moran, Executive Director of the Immigration Hub. “The tactic is just more calculating: serve up traditional anti-immigrant ads to the Republican base that blame immigrants for COVID and the fragile economy, while bucketing immigration with wild claims about the ‘radical left’ to scare suburban voters and claim he is the president of ‘law and order’. Despite the campaign's attempt, Trump’s immigration record and rhetoric is a major political liability and when Trump loses in November, it will in part be due to voters rejecting his strategy of fear and stoking racial tension.”
###
The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.