8 OCTOBER 2020
NEW ELECTION ANALYSIS: Immigration Will Play Significant Role in Persuading and Turning Out Key Bloc of Voters in Tipping-Point States
New Election Analysis by Immigration Hub Reveals Vulnerability in the Trump Campaign’s Highly Targeted Anti-Immigrant Messaging Strategy to Win Swing Voters in 2020
WASHINGTON, D.C. — The Immigration Hub today released its analysis of the impact immigration will play on key voters in battleground states that will decide the 2020 election. The Immigration Hub’s research — a deep-dive analysis of Trump campaign spending, polling of voters in battleground states, and new voter modeling — reveals that while immigration continues to be a central tactic to Trump’s reelection strategy in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, critical swing voters do not align with his rhetoric on immigration and move towards Democrats when exposed to values-based, pro-immigration messaging.
“While the 2020 presidential news cycle has been dominated by issues like COVID-19, systemic racism, and the Supreme Court, our research shows that the Trump campaign is once again depending on anti-immigration messaging to win over voters in battleground states,” said Tyler Moran, Executive Director of the Immigration Hub. “But we find that the very voters Trump needs to win — white, not college-educated suburban voters — actually align with Democrats’ pro-immigrant messaging over Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric.”
The Immigration Hub finds two key takeaways in their analysis:
Immigration is again a critical motivating issue this election. Trump is weaponizing the issue to win suburban, swing votes. The Trump campaign has retooled its 2016 and 2018 strategy: this cycle, the campaign has fully integrated anti-immigrant messages into their economic and “law and order” messaging to reach key blocs of battleground swing voters — many of whom can be moved towards Democrats with values-based, pro-immigration messaging, as found by the Immigration Hub’s voter study in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, and Wisconsin.
Swing voters support fair and humane solutions to the immigration system. Recent Immigration Hub digital research and polling have found that voters support citizenship for Dreamers and undocumented immigrants, ending family separation, and other pro-immigration solutions. By pushing forward the Democratic vision on immigration in contrast to Trump’s cruel agenda, critical swing voters — ‘family patriots’ who are mostly white, male, not college-educated, suburban voters — align with Democrats over Trump.
Read the full memo for further details on the analysis.
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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.