1 DECEMBER 2020
NEW POST ELECTION POLL: Trump’s Hardline Immigration Policies and Messaging Failed to Mobilize Votes in Michigan and Pennsylvania
New Post-Election Analysis from Immigration Hub and Global Strategy Group Finds Family Separation, Divisive Presidency, Including Hardline Immigration Policies, Contributed to Trump’s Loses in Michigan and Pennsylvania
WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new post-election survey released today by the Immigration Hub and Global Strategy Group found that in the key battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania, President Trump’s family separation policies and attacks on Dreamers failed to galvanize his supporters and alienated swing voters, leading to his defeat. Likewise, in the competitive Michigan Senate race, attacks from Republicans against Senator Gary Peters on “sanctuary cities” were ineffective and failed to connect. In line with analysis from the Hub, the post-election poll shows that immigration is no longer working for Republicans as a wedge issue, and that voters support fair and humane immigration reforms even as the Trump administration plans to enact egregious changes before their transition.
“Throughout the 2020 campaign cycle, our research has found that Trump’s divisive rhetoric not only consistently backfired on him, but created a growing majority of voters in favor of pro-immigrant solutions,” said Beatriz Lopez, Director of Political Research and Communications at the Immigration Hub. “This survey further serves as evidence that the American public is ready for an administration and a Congress willing to enact common-sense reforms - such as citizenship for undocumented Americans, reuniting families, protecting Dreamers - to undo the cruelty of an outdated immigration system that has been egregiously exacerbated by four years of Trump, Stephen Miller and the like.”
“The research we conducted shows that in critical swing states, immigration was a net negative for Trump,” said Nick Gourevitch, Partner and Managing Director at Global Strategy Group. “The family separation issue was especially damaging to the President, while attacks against Biden and other Democrats were ineffective and cited by few voters as reasons to vote against them.”
Trump’s anti-immigration policies were a net negative — more voters (41%) considered his immigration agenda to be a reason to vote against him than those who found those (34%) policies to be a reason to vote for him.
50% of voters who voted for Trump in 2016 but switched to Biden in 2020 cited Trump’s immigration policies as more of a reason to vote against him.
Family separation and Trump’s push to repeal DACA top the list of concerning immigration policies.
Immigration attacks against Biden did not deter voters against him; few Independents cited immigration as a reason to vote against him.
Attempts to attack Peters on so-called sanctuary cities were also ineffective, only one in five voters – and fewer than half of Republicans – found it to be a reason to vote against him.
Looking ahead, clear majorities support moving past Trump’s hateful agenda and enacting commonsense pro-immigration policies.
60% of all voters support a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
Including a pathway to citizenship for immigrants working in essential jobs as part of a coronavirus economic recovery package was a net positive among Democrats (+82) and Independents (+37).
Read the full deck for further details on the survey.
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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.