2 OCTOBER 2020

Latest Ads and Planned Raids Show Immigration Still Trump’s Key Strategy to Move PA Swing Voters

Jim Bognet and Sean Parnell Lean In While Scott Perry and Mike Kelly Can’t Run Away From Their Record and Ties to Trump’s Anti-Immigrant Agenda

WASHINGTON, D.C.— Immigration is again a critical motivating issue this election as President Trump continues to weaponize the issue to win suburban, swing votes in Pennsylvania and across battleground states with a tweaked ad strategy and plans to launch ICE raids in Philadelphia and other cities. Unlike 2016 and 2018 when Trump and Republicans (such as Lou Barletta) relied on overtly anti-immigrant messaging, this cycle, the Trump campaign is bucketing anti-immigrant attacks with wild claims about the ‘radical left’ to scare suburban, moderate voters. The president’s record and rhetoric on immigration, however, have proven to be a major political liability even in 2020. Despite the growing public sentiment for pro-immigration solutions, Republican candidates Jim Bognet and Sean Parnell are betting on the president’s retooled strategy while incumbents Scott Perry and Mike Kelly can’t run from a record of support for Trump’s family separation policy, termination of DACA, and funding for a border wall -- all top issues that majority of Pennsylvania voters reject.

Last weekend during his rally in Harrisburg, President Trump ranted extensively as he disparaged immigrants and attempted to scare Pennsylvania voters against the ‘radical left’. This messaging follows a recently retooled digital campaign strategy, bundling Trump’s anti-immigrant messages into multi-issue lines of attacks -- “amnesty” and “illegal immigrants” meets the “radical left”, healthcare and a scarcity of jobs, among other issues. 

Jim Bognet and Sean Parnell Betting on Trump and His Anti-Immigrant/Law and Order Strategy

Congressional candidate Jim Bognet utilized anti-immigrant rhetoric and scare tactic strategies in one of his first ads saying, “illegal immigrants took our jobs, spread crime and sent taxpers the bill.” Bognet worked on prior campaigns for Lou Barletta, and cited the former congressman’s anti-immigration policies when praising his political mentor. In 2018, Pennsylvania voters rejected this type of xenophobic rhetoric and handed Barletta a devastating loss in the midterms. Post-election analysis by the Immigration Hub found that a majority of Pennsylvanians were not galvanized or convinced by rhetoric on the caravan or sanctuary cities and that voters found that Barletta’s Trumpian immigration positions were a net negative: 46% of voters believed that Barletta’s similarities to Trump on immigration were a reason to vote against him, while only 37% saw this as a positive for Barletta.

Sean Parnell, up against Rep. Conor Lamb, not only made his national debut during the Republican National Convention endorsing President Trump as the “law and order” leader, but also hasn’t shied away from supporting the president’s border wall and attacks against “radical left” and Black Lives Matter. 

Congressmen Scott Perry and Mike Kelly’s Record Shows They’re On the Wrong Side of Public Sentiment

It’s no surprise that NumbersUSA, a designated hate group, gave Rep. Scott Perry an A-PLUS and “rock star” status. He has voted in favor of a number of anti-immigrant policies - from birthright citizenship and supporting family separations to defunding DACA and gutting legal immigration. In 2018, Perry lied that the Trump administration had not diverted funds from FEMA to ICE. In the same year, Perry also stated that it was “unfortunate” that immigrant children couldn’t be detained longer than 20 days, a policy that was put in place to protect the well-being of children. He then voted in favor of a bill that would have allowed the government to jail children indefinitely. In essence, the representative has been no stranger to blocking immigration reforms with a path to citizenship or voting for egregious bills against immigrants.

Just like Rep. Perry,  NumbersUSA has strong approval of Congressman Mike Kelly who has voted in favor of jailing children indefinitely, defunding DACA and deporting Dreamers, and of legislation that cut legal immigration by 40 percent. Despite Erie County’s history of welcoming refugees, Kelly has supported Trump 96.6% of the time and remained mum even when refugee resettlement was cut by 18,000 -- a dramatic decrease that has already impacted Erie’s economy and future at large.

Betting on Trump’s Ad Strategy and Anti-Immigrant Policies is a Liability

In just the last several weeks, the Trump campaign has fully integrated anti-immigrant messages into their economic and “law and order” messaging to reach battleground swing voters. The campaign also recently launched a “Trump for Pennsylvania” Facebook page to deploy ads with this same messaging. The change in strategy is no surprise as recent polling, conducted by Global Strategy Group, demonstrated that Trump’s overt racism and attacks on immigrants are a political liability and more voters are rejecting that message. In fact, POLITICO also reported that even after running ads against refugees, “Trump’s rhetoric does not appear to be resonating with white America to the degree that he did in 2016.” Further, a recent voter model commissioned by the Immigration Hub identified nearly 6 millions voters across Pennsylvania, Michigan and Colorado who are prone to move away from Trump and toward Democrats with values-based immigration content. 

Since 2018, the Immigration Hub has been conducting polling in swing states, finding that battleground voters increasingly support pro-immigration policies and are rejecting Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric. The latest 2020 polling, conducted this month, cement the trends: 

(1) Voters view Trump’s anti-immigrant strategy as a bigger reason to vote against him than for him, 
(2) Trump’s family separation policy remains a major vulnerability for him, and 
(3) Republican arguments are losing to Democratic arguments, including on sanctuary cities, the border wall, financial relief during the pandemic, and citizenship for the undocumented.

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The Immigration Hub is a national organization dedicated to advancing fair and just immigration policies through strategic leadership, innovative communications strategies, legislative advocacy and collaborative partnerships.